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☆ Brazil's consumer prices forecast to have risen faster in Sept.- Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( Gabriel Burin | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A man pays a vendor at a fruit stand, at a supply centre (CEASA) in Brasilia, Brazil May 9, 2023. REUTERS/Adriano Machado/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsOct 10 (Reuters) - Brazil's consumer prices likely rose faster in September, led by hikes in gasoline costs that should have brought annual inflation to the highest rate in seven months, a Reuters poll of economists showed. While it is expected to decelerate again, risks are increasingly tilted to the upside from the potential impact of the El Niño weather pattern on agricultural output which has been abundant so far this year. Brazilian state-run company Petrobras (PETR4.SA) has been raising fuel prices following movements in international oil markets in recent weeks. Higher oil prices and weather risks, combined with worries over Brazil's fiscal issues and steeper U.S. yields, have kept inflation expectations at undesirable levels, slightly above official goals.

Persons: Adriano Machado, decelerate, Yan Barros, Niño, Gabriel Burin, Andrew Cawthorne Organizations: REUTERS, Ace Capital, Petrobras, PETR4, Banco, Brasil, Thomson Locations: Brasilia, Brazil, El, Brazilian, Israel, Australia, India, Brazil's

☆ Mexico's core inflation to fall to lowest level since late 2021 in August
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Customers look at fruits at a makeshift stall in a market in Mexico City, Mexico April 8, 2022. Meanwhile, annual core inflation is forecast to have slowed to 6.12%, which would mark its lowest level since December 2021. The closely watched core price index is considered a better gauge of price trends because it strips out some volatile food and energy prices. In August alone, consumer prices likely rose 0.52% compared to July, while core inflation is forecast to have risen 0.30%, according to the poll. (MXINFL=ECI), (MXCPIX=ECI)Mexico's national statistics agency INEGI will publish consumer price index data for August on Thursday.

Persons: Luis Cortes, Bank of Mexico Governor Victoria Rodriguez, Noe Torres, Gabriel Burin, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of, Bank of Mexico Governor, Thomson Locations: Mexico City, Mexico, MEXICO, Bank, Bank of Mexico, Buenos Aires

☆ Argentina inflation likely sped back up ahead of primary vote, analysts say
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-11 | by ( Hernan Nessi | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A costumer counts money before buying tangerines in a green grocery store, as Argentines struggle amid rising inflation, in Buenos Aires, Argentina May 11, 2023. REUTERS/Agustin MarcarianBUENOS AIRES, Aug 11 (Reuters) - Argentina's monthly inflation rate likely sped back up to 7.1% in July, a Reuters poll of analysts showed, a blow for the ruling Peronist coalition, which is battling to avoid defeat by the conservative opposition in primary elections on Sunday. The projections from 19 local and foreign analysts ranged from a minimum 5.9% rise to a maximum 7.9% jump in the month. Many analysts saw a tough outlook for prices in the months ahead due to economic uncertainty, fiscal imbalances, and volatility ahead of the general election in October. Argentina's INDEC statistics agency is expected to publish inflation data next week after the primaries.

Persons: Agustin Marcarian, That's, Alejandro Giacoia, Eugenio Marí, Hernán Nessi, Gabriel Burin, Adam Jourdan, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, Peronist, Sunday, Index, Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics, Libertad, Thomson Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, Agustin Marcarian BUENOS AIRES, Progreso

☆ Brazilian consumer prices seen virtually flat in July vs June
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-09 | by ( Gabriel Burin | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A customer looks at the prices at a supermarket in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, May 6, 2016. "Moreover, services and core services indexes also improved... although they will continue to be considerably above the inflation target," the analysts noted. Brazil is enjoying benign food inflation trends resulting from a record-breaking crop that may be repeated next season, provided the country's vast production of grains and oilseeds is spared from the impact of the El Nino climatic pattern. Apart from helping to open a window for much awaited interest rate cuts, stable food prices facilitate President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's government initiative to raise fuel taxes again in a bid to strengthen Brazil's public accounts. Reporting and polling by Gabriel Burin; Editing by Ross Finley and Jan HarveyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Nacho Doce, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's, Gabriel Burin, Ross Finley, Jan Harvey Organizations: REUTERS, Santander, El, Thomson Locations: Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

☆ Bank of Mexico seen holding key rate at 11.25% for the second time
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

MEXICO CITY, June 20 (Reuters) - Mexico's central bank will likely keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged in its next monetary policy decision, a Reuters poll showed on Tuesday, amid a slowdown in inflation. The 20 analysts polled by Reuters see the Latin American country's central bank maintaining borrowing costs at the current rate of 11.25% for the second time in the announcement scheduled for Thursday. The Mexican central bank, known as Banxico, unanimously held its benchmark interest rate steady at 11.25% in its last meeting, breaking a nearly two-year rate-hike cycle during which it raised the rate by 725 basis points to combat rising consumer prices. According to another Reuters poll, Mexico's headline inflation could hit 5.30% in the first two weeks of June, reaching its lowest level in more than two years. Banxico will announce its next interest rate decision on Thursday at 1 p.m. local time (1900 GMT).

Persons: Banxico, Noe Torres, Gabriel Burin, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: MEXICO CITY, Reuters, Thomson Locations: MEXICO, Mexican, Buenos Aires

☆ Mexican inflation seen at lowest level in more than two years: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

MEXICO CITY, June 19 (Reuters) - Mexico's headline inflation likely reached its lowest level in more than two years during the first half of June, but remained above the central bank's target, a Reuters poll showed on Monday, reinforcing bets the bank will keep the key rate steady longer. The median forecast of 11 analysts sees annual headline inflation at 5.30%, its lowest level since the second half of March 2021, although it would still be significantly higher than the official target of 3%, plus or minus a percentage point. The core index, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, is forecast to have slid to 7.02% year-on-year, its lowest level since March 2022. (MXCPIF=ECI), (MXCPIH=ECI)Mexico's statistics institute will release inflation data for the first half of June on Thursday. Reporting by Noe Torres; Additional reporting by Gabriel Burin in Buenos Aires; Editing by Sandra MalerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Noe Torres, Gabriel Burin, Sandra Maler Organizations: MEXICO CITY, Bank of, Thomson Locations: MEXICO, Bank of Mexico, Buenos Aires

☆ Mexico peso's expected fall to be broken by favourable rate spread
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( Gabriel Burin | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

BUENOS AIRES, June 8 (Reuters) - An expected fall in Mexico's peso will likely be cushioned by its favorable interest rate spread, although there is a wide range of views on the currency's prospects over the coming year, a Reuters poll of foreign exchange strategists showed. It was also the best projection for the 12-month period in the survey's recent history, reflecting positive sentiment towards the big margin between Mexico's benchmark rate, currently at 11.25%, and the U.S fed funds rate range of 5.00%-5.25%. "This is particularly stark for MXN, whose volatility is the most subdued despite its arguably greater sensitivity to U.S.-driven risk-off shocks." In Brazil, the real , is set to fall 4.5% in one year to 5.14 per U.S. dollar from 4.91 this week. The real is up 7.7%, confounding detractors who saw it crashing early on in President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's government.

Persons: Optimists, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's, Gabriel Burin, Anitta Sunil, Aditi Verma, Jonathan Cable, Ross Finley, Sharon Singleton Organizations: Thomson Locations: BUENOS AIRES, Mexico's, U.S, Brazil, Buenos Aires, Bengaluru

☆ Argentina's economy teeters on the edge of deeper crisis as market anxiety grows
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( Gabriel Burin | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

BUENOS AIRES, April 21 (Reuters) - Argentina's economy will teeter on the edge of a deeper crisis in the run up to October's presidential vote as growing market anxiety adds to a harmful mix of drought-induced recession and skyrocketing inflation, a Reuters poll showed. Pointing to an increasingly negative outlook, the number of recession forecasts escalated to 27 of 32 respondents from just 7 of 23 in January. 3 economy into a crisis comparable to the chaotic periods of 1989-1990 and 2001-2002. For Mexico, growth prospects were slightly upgraded to 1.5% this year and 1.6% in 2024 from 1.0% and 1.8% in January - still well below the government's more optimistic scenario of a 3.0% expansion. Reporting by Gabriel Burin in Buenos Aires; Editing by Alexandra HudsonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Brazil inflation seen staying high in March on rising gasoline costs
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Gabriel Burin | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

April 10 (Reuters) - Brazil's inflation likely stayed high in March on rising gasoline bills, reigniting cost of living problems in the country's stagnant economy and probably stoking more disagreement over policy, a Reuters poll showed. Consumer prices cooled in the second half of 2022 in reaction to an aggressive tightening campaign by the central bank. But inflation pressures reemerged after President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva took office at the start of this year. This would stand very close to the 0.84% rate in February, which had been the quickest in 10 months. A 0.77% inflation rate in March would result in a cumulative 2.2% clip in the first quarter, well on course to surpass this year's goal of 3.25% with a margin of 1.5 percentage points.

☆ Colombia's peso to stay weak on c.bank pause signs, mismatch vs oil price
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Gabriel Burin | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

BUENOS AIRES, April 5 (Reuters) - Colombia's peso will likely stay weak on signs the central bank is turning to a wait-and-see approach on interest rates, combined with downside pressures from the currency's mismatch against oil prices, a Reuters poll showed. Officials at BanRep, as the central bank is known, last week raised the benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 13.0%, a more than 20-year high. "If March inflation behaves as expected, they suggested this could be the last hike," J.P. Morgan analysts wrote in a report. We think this supports our underweight (view) for the peso, which has also decoupled from lower oil prices these past few weeks and offers good entry levels for shorts." The currency has fared poorly for months even while Colombia's central bank conducted an aggressive tightening cycle that added 1,125 basis points in rate increments since a pandemic-time low of 1.75%.

☆ Bank of Mexico seen hiking key rate by 25 basis points on Thursday
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Noe Torres | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

MEXICO CITY, March 27 (Reuters) - The Bank of Mexico is expected to moderate the pace of its monetary tightening, and hike the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points on Thursday as inflation has shown signs of cooling, a Reuters poll showed on Monday. All 20 analysts surveyed said they expect Banxico, as the Mexican central bank is known, to increase the key rate to 11.25%, in what would be the 15th rate hike in a row. (MXCBIR=ECI)Banxico's five-member governing board unanimously voted to increase the key rate by 50 basis points to 11.00% in early February, beating market forecasts, citing a complex inflation scenario. At the time, Banxico suggested that while its rate hiking cycle was not over, future increases could be smaller. Banxico has raised its key interest rate by 700 basis points to 11.00% since its rate-hiking cycle started in June 2021 to combat inflation.

☆ Mexico peso seen resilient through economic slowdown in 2023: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( Gabriel Burin | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

BUENOS AIRES, Dec 7 (Reuters) - The Mexican peso will weaken only modestly in 2023 through a gathering economic slowdown as confidence in the country's moderate policies and manageable debt metrics remains high, a Reuters poll of currency strategists showed. The main challenges for the Mexican currency in the medium-term are a deteriorating economy and how Banxico, as the central bank is known, continues adapting to the U.S. Federal Reserve's anti-inflation strategy. The Mexican central bank has increased its key interest rate by 600 basis points since mid-2021 to 10.0%. read moreYear to date, the peso is up 3.9%, while the Brazilian real , has gained 5.5%. In the poll, Brazil's currency was forecast to strengthen 2.1% from this week's levels to 5.17 per U.S. dollar in one year.

Summary poll dataBUENOS AIRES/MEXICO CITY, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Brazil stocks will rally by double-digits through end-2023, despite uncertainty about new government policies as President-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva seeks to balance social priorities and budget constraints, a Reuters poll predicted. The benchmark Bovespa stock index (.BVSP) is set to rally 13% by end-2023 to 123,250 points from 108,976 points on Friday, according to the median estimate of 11 strategists polled Nov. 14-23. The Ibovespa (index) is still at a discount, awaiting government news," said Fernando Bresciani, research analyst at Andbank. Members of his transition group have voiced contrasting opinions on 2023 budget talks and the leadership race for the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB). Private economists in a central bank weekly poll projected an expansion rate of just 0.7%.

☆ Mexico headline inflation seen easing in early November, core inflation up
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

The median forecast of 16 analysts sees annual headline inflation slowing to 8.24% from the 8.28% recorded in the second half of October. While annual inflation continues its deceleration from a peak of 8.77% in the second half of August, core inflation is now expected to rise to 8.60%, a level not seen since August 2000. Meanwhile, headline consumer prices are expected to have risen 0.65% in the period. The forecasts keep annual inflation far above the Bank of Mexico's target of 3% plus or minus one percentage point. Mexico's statistics institute will release inflation data for the first half of November on Thursday at 6 a.m. (1200 GMT).

☆ Mexican headline inflation seen easing in October, core inflation up
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

MEXICO CITY, Nov 7 (Reuters) - Mexican inflation is expected to have moderated in October but remained well above the central bank's target, a Reuters poll showed Monday, likely cementing forecasts monetary policy makers will again hike the benchmark interest rate. The median forecast of 16 analysts sees annual inflation at 8.46% in October, down from a 22-year high of 8.70% registered in September and August. The closely watched annual core inflation rate, which strips out some volatile food and energy prices, was forecast to hit 8.44% in October, its highest level since August 2000 and up from 8.28% in September, according to the poll. (MXCCPI=ECI)In October alone, Mexican consumer prices are estimated to have increased by 0.61% from the previous month, while the median projection for monthly core inflation was seen at 0.65%. Reporting by Noe Torres; Additional reporting by Gabriel Burin in Buenos Aires Editing by Alistair BellOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Mexican inflation seen at 8.71% in first half of September
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The median forecast of 17 analysts projected annual inflation at 8.71%, down from 8.77% in the second half of August, when it reached its highest level since late 2000. Annual core inflation, which strips out some volatile food and energy prices, is forecast to reach 8.28% in the month's first. (MXCPIC=ECI)Mexican consumer prices are estimated to have increased by 0.37% in the first half of September compared to the previous half-month period, with core inflation seen rising 0.44%, according to the Reuters poll. (MXCPIF=ECI), (MXCPIH=ECI)Mexico's national statistics agency INEGI will publish consumer price data for the first half of September on Thursday. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Noe Torres; Additional reporting by Gabriel Burin in Buenos Aires; Editing by Sandra MalerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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